川普威脅伊朗,科技股表現謹慎

隨著川普總統加強對伊朗的威脅力度,科技股和其他資產表現出疲態。

NAS100 – 4H Chart
NAS100 – 4小時圖表

科技股價格已跌至21696點,突破了5月以來的上漲趨勢。下一個上升趨勢線有可能從該低點測試斐波那契水平,關鍵水平在上方。

在川普加入伊朗衝突的行列後,原油價格又下跌了4%,週二股指下跌。在最初淡化了美國的介入之後,總統開始加強戰爭談話的力度,而該國的立法者要么參與其中,要么擔心加入另一場中東的長期衝突。

在川普準備會見他的國家安全團隊後,股市繼續下跌,導致人們猜測該國可能即將加入對伊朗的襲擊。以色列表示將加強攻擊,而川普則表示希望伊朗「無條件投降」。

據估計,伊朗為中國提供了目前30%的石油供應,而且這場戰爭有可能吞噬其他世界大國。

對科技股的另一個打擊是對滯脹的擔憂,即GDP放緩與通膨上升一致。最新的零售銷售報告和強於預期的進口價格報告增加了一些疲軟,而房屋建築商信心跌至2.5年低點。

美國5月零售額下降了0.9%,比預期的下降0.6%還要糟糕,而5月不包括汽車在內的零售額意外下降了0.3%。

這些較弱的數據點可能是關稅早期影響的跡象,如果油價繼續走高,這也是一種風險。在川普總統上週三宣布,他打算致函許多貿易夥伴,在商定的90天暫停的最後期限7月9日之前設定單邊關稅之後,投資者現在正準備在未來兩週內聽到負面關稅消息。

本週市場轉向週三結束的聯準會為期兩天的議息會議,市場預期聯邦基金利率將維持在4.25%-4.50%的水準。這可能不會讓總統滿意,他一直對聯準會有限的降息持批評態度。這將使會後的新聞發布會變得有趣,因為市場目前預計本週降息25個基點的可能性為0%。

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