儘管PMI數據疲軟,中國股市仍走高

中國股市在過去兩天上漲,儘管PMI數據是自2022年以來最弱的。

CHINA 50 – Daily Chart
中國50日線圖

中國50指數從低點13,147反彈,但阻力位在13,807。13000點是下行的關鍵。

5月財新/標普全球製造業採購經理人指數PMI從4月的50.4降至48.3,低於路透社調查分析師的預期,為去年9月以來首次萎縮。受關稅影響,這也是該指標32個月來的最低水準。

股市反彈,是因為該數據與上週六發布的中國官方PMI數據基本一致。 PMI數據顯示,製造業活動連續第二個月下降。中美貿易談判兩週後,財政部長斯科特貝森特週四表示,談判「有點停滯」。

中國總理李強上週表示,中國正在研究新的政策工具,包括一些「非常規措施」。

根據最新的財新調查,5月新出口訂單連續第二個月萎縮。這也是自2023年7月以來最快的下降速度。

摩根士丹利首席中國經濟學家Robin Xing表示,數據顯示,供需失衡仍是一個因素。

「關於需要再平衡的言論越來越多,但最近的事態發展表明,舊的供應驅動模式仍然完好無損。因此,再通膨可能仍然難以捉摸。”

中國股市仍處於盤整階段,目前沒有突破的跡象。由於需求預期,倫敦金屬交易所的鋁、鎳和銅價格下跌,流入上海股市的外國投資持續減少。

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